What Will America Look Like Twenty Years from Now? I See a Bleak Picture
What Will America Look Like Twenty Years from Now?
I See a Bleak Picture
June 8, 2018 (Amended June 25, 2018)
You might think that because I am a conservative I would be very upbeat about the country’s future. After all, we now have someone in the White House who wants to cut spending, lower taxes, and reduce burdensome regulations on business. In an effort to spur economic growth and cut deficits, President Trump is trying to do all these things. The truth is that I am optimistic, but only in the short term – and only if Donald Trump is re-elected. My concern is more for the ten to fifteen years after he leaves office.
I am fully aware that the $1.3B spending bill that was passed by both Houses of Congress and signed by the president will result in a deficit of $833B for FY 2018. There are two reasons why I remain optimistic. The first is that the President stated that he would never sign another spending bill that would result in a deficit of this size. Also, the deficit for FY 2018 was based on economic growth of only 2% a year. The country’s economy is currently projected to expand by 3.3% for the first 3 quarters of FY 2018. This should lower the deficit by around $350B. Considering where we started, that’s not too shabby. There is one other piece of relevant information and that is that the economy is continuing to grow. The numbers are improving every month, much to the dismay of people on the left. So my short-term optimism is based on higher economic growth and lower deficits for the next three years. If President Trump is re-elected, I can see fiscal improvement well into his second term.
Government spending is an issue that causes me great concern for the future of this country. Specifically, I’m talking about the amount of interest we pay on the national debt as well as the cost of entitlement spending. The president has little or no control over either of these two items. Interest rates are market-driven and any changes to entitlements, including Social Security and Medicare, will have to go through Congress. This means that without congressional support there is only so much he can do. Good luck with that Mr. President.
Both interest rates and the national debt continue to rise. For example, interest expense on the debt in FY 2016 was $240B. It is projected that in FY 2019 interest expense on the debt will increase to $363B. That would be a 51% increase in just four years. If you go out an additional eight years to FY2027 at the same rate of increase, the projected amount of taxpayer money that the government will pay in interest balloons to $828B per year. If this doesn’t worry you, it should. So long as we are deficit spending every additional dollar we spend on interest will have to be borrowed – and will result in even higher deficits. This is one of the economic reasons why I am not optimistic about the future.
The other problem that threatens the economic future of our country is entitlement spending. Just recently, the Social Security program went into negative cash flow. Simply put, this means that more money is being paid out in benefits than is being collected from Social Security taxes. In addition, for several years now, Medicare has also been in negative cash flow with Medicare tax receipts covering only about 74% of Medicare benefit payments. Dealing with entitlements is not in any politician’s best interest. This is why it hasn’t been addressed. Eventually those of us who depend on these programs, and who will have paid into them for forty or fifty years, will suffer greatly as a result of the inaction, ineptness, and cowardice of Congress. This is economic reason number two why I have a bleak outlook for America’s future.
When Barack Obama left office there were areas of this planet that were in conflict. Some of those areas were in violent conflict, such as the Middle East, while other areas of conflict could be described as more political in nature. One of the problems the president was forced to deal with upon taking office was ISIS. In roughly the first twelve months he was in office coalition forces, under American leadership, regained almost 95% of the territory held by the ISIS caliphate. In addition, much of the ISIS army was killed or dispersed. They have now been reduced to a ragtag outfit trying to regain their former status as a force to be reckoned with.
By contrast, the Iranians are the number one purveyor of terrorism in the world. They are responsible for funding Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis rebels in Yemen, and probably other terror organizations as well. By way of the Iran Nuclear Deal, President Obama donated $100B or so to the Iranians to help them in their cause of spreading terror. Two areas where the Iranians are creating unrest are Yemen and Syria. Saudi Arabia is currently assisting the government of Yemen in resisting the Houthis rebels. The Iranians tried to set up a military base near the Israeli border with Syria. Their plan was to launch attacks from that base against the Israelis. They did so, and the Israelis bloodied their nose for them. In my opinion, President Trump doesn’t have to worry too much about that part of world because the Israelis seem to be able to take care of themselves.
According to President Trump, the Iranian nuclear deal was the worst deal in the history of mankind. That might be an embellishment, but not by much. The only people who think it was a good deal were President Obama, John Kerry, Susan Rice and our European negotiating partners. President Obama and his staff were hot for this deal – not because it was a particularly good deal, but because they wanted a deal at any cost. The terms of the deal appear to have been a secondary consideration as compared to “getting the deal.” What the Iranians got was over $100B in cold hard cash (a whole plane load). They are currently using that money to foment terror and fight proxy wars in the Middle East. Furthermore, the US and its allies lifted the economic sanctions that were crippling the Iranian economy.
In exchange for all the money and concessions we gave to Iran, Iran agreed that it will restrict its ability to enrich uranium to no more than 2.5%, a percentage that is well below the level needed for weapons grade material. This restriction “sunsets” (ends) in fifteen years, at which point the Iranians will be able to resume enriching uranium at higher levels. We also have the right to inspect Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities as long we give them 24 days advance notice. This is really true. I’m surprised that the inspectors are not forced to wear blindfolds during their inspection. It is highly problematic that we have no access to Iran’s military bases, since it is suspected that the enrichment process has been moved to these sites. Another important concession that our shrewd, tough negotiators failed to get was a restriction on Iran’s ability to develop ballistic missiles. Iran’s ability to freely pursue ballistic missiles jeopardizes their neighbors and makes them subject to extortion.
The ink wasn’t even dry on this agreement when our European negotiating partners began signing previously negotiated trade deals with the Iranians. In total, these deals were worth billions of dollars. Our European partners knew that this was a flawed deal, yet they were reluctant to walk away because in the end, it was all about the money. President Obama wanted this deal so he could he could put it on the mantle above his fireplace right next to Obamacare. The Europeans, on the other hand, got billions in trade deals. As bad as that is, at least they got something of value.
Another crisis that was either kicked down the road or mishandled was North Korea. This problem has been unsolvable for 25 years. America’s best minds were unable to bring North Korea to the table let alone resolve the issue. Over the years, I’ve heard Bill Clinton and Barack Obama referred to as geniuses by the left-wing media. Imagine that. Not one, but two American geniuses were unable to solve this problem. Not only did our two American geniuses fail to resolve the problem, but Kim Jong Il took both of them to the cleaners. This is what happens when walking away from the table is not an option.
Enter stage right President Donald J Trump, the lowly inexperienced businessman from New York City. This man has no background in political science, no experience in foreign affairs, and does not speak the language of diplomacy. He gets into a public shouting match with the leader of North Korea and for a couple of months they go back and forth. While these reciprocal verbal onslaughts were going on, President Trump imposes very harsh economic sanctions on North Korea and moves three carrier strike groups into the western pacific. In addition, he begins secret shuttle diplomacy using Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as his front man. Several trips and high-level meetings later between the North, the South and our other allies in the region, and now we have a meeting set between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea. I think that we would all agree that these are not conventional tactics. I also think that we could all agree that we had a positive result.
Several weeks prior to this historic meeting, the “benevolent despot” released three Americans that had been held prisoner by North Korea, one for as long as three years. For this concession, we gave up nothing. After some more public back and forth between the two roosters, a meeting date was confirmed for June 12th in Singapore. As Leonard Cohen once said, “Hallelujah.”
The meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong Un took place on June 12th as scheduled and by all accounts it went very well. Since the meeting, gifts of good faith have been exchanged by both sides. We received the remains of two hundred fallen US soldiers that were never recovered after the truce was signed at the end of the the Korean War. In return, North Korea received assurances from the US and South Korea that they would not hold military training exercises in the Western Pacific. I do realize of course that this is not, by any means, a final deal. Nonetheless, the two sides have talked and continue to talk. They are moving forward and more meetings are planned. It appears that if progress continues, Kim Jong Un will be invited to the White House.
I’ve heard that this process could take up to two and a half years before a final deal is signed. Wouldn’t it be a coup if a lowly, inexperienced, non-genius businessman from New York City was able to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and end the Korean War. There is always the possibility that the deal could fall apart. If it is not completed while Trump is in office, it may not get done. This would be another possible reason why I would be less than upbeat after the president leaves office.
We are all aware of the Russian interference in our elections in 2016. This intrusion into our election process actually began as far back as 2014 during the Obama administration. President Obama admitted that he was aware of the Russian meddling as early as the summer of 2016, yet he did nothing. He also made the point that he didn’t make it public because he didn’t want to influence the election. Of course he didn’t want to influence the election. Hillary was supposed to win. Given that fact, why would he want to upset the apple cart?
This threat is not over. It is widely thought that these efforts by the Russians were just a dry run with the main event yet to come. There was not a lot of money spent and the focus of these attacks was very limited. I hope our intelligence agencies are keeping close tabs on this threat.
When this type of activity is uncovered and made public it makes me wonder whether there are other plots that are either currently operational or in the pipeline. I wouldn’t make a statement like that lightly. It is a fact that Vladimir Putin would like nothing better than to re-establish Russian control over the Eastern Bloc countries of the former Soviet Union. To this end, the Russian government is actively recruiting pro-Russian candidates in those countries and supporting them for public office. In other words, they are trying to take control of these countries, not through armed conflict, but by winning elections and taking control of the government. With government control, they could pass new laws, put pro-Russian people in power, and country-by-country, regain control of those former Eastern Bloc countries. Could that happen here?
For years, or even decades, our trading partners, both friendly and not-so-friendly, have been eating our lunch with regard to trade. The issue centers on two things: first, tariffs and second, foreign governments' subsidizing key industries in their countries to make them more competitive internationally. The other problem with this is they are imposing tariffs on our exports, making them much more expensive overseas. The higher the price, the less demand there is for the product. The less demand for the product, the less we export. The less we export, the lower the number of jobs that are created here in the US. This is a generalization, but it will illustrate the point. When the U.S. ships a product into a foreign country, that country may charge, for example, a 10% tariff. That 10% is added to the price of the product and the consumer is forced to pay it. The U.S., on the other hand, may charge the same country a 2% tariff on a similar product that is manufactured in their country and then shipped to the U.S. In simple terms, their tariffs are higher than ours. This is not free and fair trade. It is trade protectionism plain and simple – and it hurts our country. We are being bled by people who refer to us as “friends.” The members of the European Union, at least in this context, are fair-weather friends who are gaming the system. It’s bad enough that we are basically supporting NATO. Is it also necessary that we prop up their economies as well?
Subsidizing key industries is another unfair trade policy practiced by some of the countries we trade with. This means that the governments of some of the countries we trade with prop up key industries in their countries by giving them government help in the form of tax credits or tax refunds. They do this in order to make them more competitive internationally. They then flood the market with this subsidized product and thus undercut fair market pricing. If we were to continue to live with these unfair trade practices we would lose even more manufacturing facilities than we already have. President Trump is trying to put a stop to these unfair trade practices and level the playing field. There will be short term pain. No pain, no gain.
I believe it was Prime Minister Trudeau who said, and I’m paraphrasing, friends don’t treat friends in this manner. Well it just so happens that I agree with Mr.Trudeau 100%. Therefore, since we both agree that we’re such good friends, let’s lower the tariffs between our two countries to zero. Or are we only friends when you’re making money off of us?
The most recent estimate I’ve heard regarding illegal immigration is around twenty million. These people have entered our country uninvited and are availing themselves of our government services and other resources. These other resources include sending their children to our schools and receiving financial assistance from our government in one form or another. In some parts of this country illegals are treated better than tax-paying citizens. For example, some states want to give illegal immigrants free health care and free college tuition at the taxpayers’ expense. Those who are in favor of this are not doing it out of benevolence for their fellow man. They are doing it for political gain in the name of Democratic votes. They are basically selling out their own country for political gain in the name of Democratic votes.
A good many of these illegals are working. That’s a good thing except for the fact that in most cases they’re working “under the table,” and not paying taxes. According to the Social Security Administration, illegals are not eligible to obtain a social security card. So these people are working and not paying taxes. How does that benefit America? By the way, the key word here is illegal. There are legal immigrants who come into this country, apply for a social security card, go to work, and pay taxes. Illegal immigrants do not.
Illegal immigration has been a thorn in America’s side for decades. Ronald Reagan couldn’t fix it. Bill Clinton and George W Bush couldn’t fix it. Barack Obama had both Houses of Congress with sixty votes in senate and didn’t get it done. President Obama didn’t get it done because it was more advantageous for him and his party not to get it done. This is why we have catch and release. These people will get to vote someday and they will probably vote Democratic. This is why illegal immigration is the problem that Democrats don’t want to solve. It’s also a problem that President Trump can’t solve by himself. He gets no help from Democrats in resolving the issue. Over the years, this problem has cost the U.S. billions – and those billions have had to be borrowed. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of this latest crisis the government has spent over $250M trying to accommodate these people. It’s money that the country cannot afford to pay back and we will be paying interest on this money in perpetuity. To all my liberal/ socialist/ millennial friends out there and also to my grandchildren, “Good luck with that.” This situation is an economic and a political disaster for this country.
We are currently experiencing a crisis in this country called selective law enforcement. Some people commit crimes and are prosecuted, and if they are found guilty, then they are punished. Other people commit the same crime and are not prosecuted. There is evidence of this selective law enforcement phenomenon at highest levels of the FBI and the Justice Department. There were multiple FBI agents and DOJ lawyers who exhibited extreme bias and, for lack of a better word, fanatical hatred, towards the president. This bias and hatred was used by overzealous prosecutors to indict people with crimes, such as lying under oath or for other crimes totally unrelated to the Russian collusion investigation. Numerous FBI personnel have been demoted, asked to resign, or have been fired. These people disgraced themselves and the stellar organization they served.
One such FBI investigator was Peter Strzok. It was Mr. Strzok who, along with other FBI personnel, interviewed General Michael Flynn and had him indicted for lying to the FBI. This was done even though, in the opinion of some of the interviewers, General Flynn was not trying to deceive the interviewer.
Agent Strzok was also involved in the interview of Hillary Clinton. She mishandled tens of thousands of government emails, some of them highly classified. Her interview was not recorded nor was she even put under oath. One other tidbit of relevant information is that an exoneration letter was written by then FBI director James Comey, at least two months before Mrs. Clinton was even interviewed by the FBI. The reason James Comey gave for not following FBI procedure and not recommending charges was, and I’m paraphrasing here, she didn’t do it on purpose. If this is not selective law enforcement, I don’t know what is. The investigation into Russian collusion and also the investigation of the the Hillary Clinton email issue are just two examples of selective law enforcement. There are thousands of examples of selective law enforcement all over the country. In these so-called sanctuary cities, illegal immigrants commit crimes and are not held because the local governments have ordered the police not to hold them or in some cases they are released with a very low bond and then fail to show up for the hearing. If an American citizen committed the same crime, he would be arrested and held. This is selective law enforcement and it is also a significant threat to our country. This is another reason why I am less than optimistic about the future of this nation.
Millennials entered the political scene during the 2016 president election. Their biggest impact was felt during the Democratic primary as many of them voted for socialist Bernie Sanders. Not only did they vote for him, they did so enthusiastically. When you think about it, this was totally predictable. These young people have been brainwashed their entire lives, starting in kindergarten and all the way through high school and college. Many of their teachers were, for the most part, liberal. The entertainers they watch, emulate, and support are off-the-chart liberal, and the media outlets where they get their news are also quite liberal. Is it any wonder that these people voted for Bernie Sanders? In the very near future, millennials will be the largest voting demographic in the country. Many of these people want bigger government and more government services. More government is expensive. The money for all these government services has to come from somewhere. Will they do what President Obama did and “borrow” $700B from the social security trust fund? He borrowed this money to fund Obamacare and, to the best of my knowledge, it was never paid back. Or will they cut defense spending and leave our young men and women in uniform without the tools or the training to defend this country? The other option is to keep borrowing the money until our credit runs out. Eventually it will come to that. Millennials are another reason why I have a bleak outlook for this country after Trump. It is my fear that these young people actually believe that the U.S. government has unlimited financial resources and that it can provide anything and everything its citizens require.
From what I know about millennials they mostly lean to the left. They want free tuition, free healthcare and any other help the government will give them. Their dream is to be taken care of from cradle to grave. This is what happens when you’re brought up to be a liberal, or in some cases, a socialist. As I said above, millennials want more government. I really don’t think it matters to them how they get it. They can either keep borrowing and eventually bankrupt the country, or they can raise taxes and get the money that way. Really? Raising taxes to pay for all these freebees will cost us jobs and will also lower economic growth. Businesses will cut back or leave the country altogether. With the current level of national debt at $21B, all this government spending is financially out of the question. We simply cannot afford more government giveaways. As I said above, millennials are one of the main reasons for my bleak outlook after Trump.
The president has been called, “unfit to serve.” He has also been called “mentally deranged”. Others have called him ”incompetent.” The best one I’ve heard is that “he is a threat to the republic.” The people who made these remarks are rooting for the president’s policies to fail. For example, Bill Maher is hoping for the U.S. to go into recession. In his mind, that will serve as proof that Donald Trump is incompetent. Mr Maher and others like him would rather see the country go into recession and hundreds of thousands of people lose their jobs just to get Trump out of office. I would call that “mentally deranged.”
There has been quite a bit of evidence accumulated by the Inspector General of the Justice Department, Michael Horowitz. This report will be released to the public shortly. Officials who testified in front of congress have stated that several high-ranking FBI officials either did not follow proper procedure or may even have broken the law. This report will also touch on the fake investigation of Hillary Clinton’s email server and the mishandeling of thousands of government emails. When this report is released to the public we will know who was really “unfit to serve”.
The mainstream media (MSM) has said that by playing hard ball with Kim Jong Un, the president was going to start a nuclear war. They were wrong. They also said that his tax plan would bankrupt the country. They were also wrong about that. The American MSM deals in BS, speculation, and misinformation. To put it bluntly, the left-leaning MSM spews propaganda and calls it news. It’s what they do. Aren’t they the real threat to the Republic?
In the seventeen months since Donald Trump became president several journalists of the MSM have been fired, demoted, or in some way reprimanded for submitting unsubstantiated stories to their editors. These stories were at best disingenuous and at worst, untrue. You could almost call this type of reporting a self-indictment of the MSM. By the way, I do watch these MSM channels and I see stories like this almost everyday. Some of these stories are so obviously untrue that my eight-year-old granddaughter could see through them. The only people who would believe news reporting like this are people who want to believe it. These people have such a strong dislike for the president that they will believe whatever negative story, innuendo, or speculation they hear. These type of people are referred to as “useful idiots” – people who follow blindly and are easily led. This type of biased reporting is also a threat to the Republic. It reminds me of the old Soviet Union.
Since the day Donald Trump was elected the MSM has spent ninety percent of their airtime criticizing him and his entire family and ten percent or less of their time reporting what he’s accomplished. Wouldn’t it be nice if we actually had an unbiased media that we could actually believe and have confidence in the product that they put out over the airwaves. In spite of this, President Trump has been able to accomplish a great deal for the good of the country.
For example, several months after taking office, the president made a remark that passing tax reform would be like putting rocket fuel on the economy. Well, guess what, after passing tax reform, the economy actually began to take off. Economic growth for the third quarter for FY 2018 is projected to be over four percent. In addition to tax reform, the elimination of thousands of unnecessary and burdensome regulations also played a role in spurring economic growth. The MSM gave the president little or no credit. If this is what passes for fair and honest reporting, I’ll pass.
When the Russians invaded and annexed Crimea, the world condemned Russia in the strongest possible terms but did nothing. After the invasion of Crimea, the Russian Army massed troops on the border between Russia and Ukraine. It wasn’t until Donald Trump became president that the U.S. actually did something to help the Ukrainians. He sent them a large shipment of defensive weapons so that at least they would have the means to defend themselves. President Obama did nothing.
Donald Trump has handled – or is in the process of handling – all of the above issues. The case of North Korea was the most serious issue confronting us today. I originally wrote this section of this post about North Korea prior to the summit in Singapore. At that time, the situation with North Korea and their nuclear weapons made me very uneasy about America’s future. All it takes is one little mistake and BOOM. We are now about ten days after the summit and significant progress was made. It appears that the two leaders hit it off and are building a relationship. It’s only a beginning but I have a more optimistic outlook regarding this issue now than I did before the meeting. President Trump is making progress which is more than any other president has been able to do. All the issues discussed above are being worked on with little or no help from the Democrats. The Democrats have done nothing but obstruct what the president is trying to accomplish.
Donald Trump is a results-oriented person. He gets things done. This is going to sound a little strange, but for a person who is used to giving orders and getting results like him, it must be a huge letdown to have to deal with career politicians and bureaucrats, who have only one speed – turtle speed. I actually sympathize with him having to deal with these people.
Being a private sector businessman, President Trump likes to get things done the right way and he likes them done quickly. When you’re using your own money, the faster the job is completed the less costly it is. Wouldn’t it be special if it actually worked that way in government? When dealing with people who work for the government, you are dealing with people who spend other people’s money. Therefore if it costs a little more, it’s not a major issue. It’s just taxpayer dollars.
In the first seventeen months that Donald Trump has been in office he has had to deal with an unbelievable number of significant issues. I don’t know of any previous president, with the possible exception of FDR, who had as much on his plate as Donald Trump has. Some of these issues arose while he was in office, but a great many of them were inherited from previous administrations. Were these issues too difficult for these presidents to handle or was it not politically advantageous to take them on? Either choice does not speak well for those individuals. Trump, to his credit, is trying to tackle everything. This is why I have concerns for our country after Trump. He is getting it done.
With all the accomplishments that President Trump has to his credit since taking office, I still see a bleak future for this country after he leaves office. The country is, and has been, living beyond its means for years. Our elected officials spend hundreds of billions of dollars every year that we don’t have. They borrow the money with no thought of ever paying it back. Eventually, the government’s ability to borrow will end. Much of this overspending passed by Congress is by design. Other items like interest expense, which is beginning to balloon, has to be paid in order to keep the country from defaulting on its debt. We are at a point right now where we are borrowing about $300B per year just to pay interest on the debt. And it will continue to get worse.
As I said above, millennials will be the major voting demographic in the country. The numbers of my generation are beginning to dwindle and with that, the next generation will take over the reins. Obviously, our generation didn’t do a particularly good job controlling spending which is why we are almost $22T in debt. That said, the millennials who want more government and more government services will have hard choices to make. More government costs money. What programs and departments will be funded and which ones will not be is yet to be seen. Will their government allow the business community to thrive and grow and create jobs? Or will they over-regulate and overtax business owners to the point where they are forced to cut back on hiring and investment and stunt economic growth? Let me repeat what I have said several times before: Less economic growth means less government revenue. Less government revenue means more deficit spending. This is not a complicated issue.
I have a less than optimistic outlook for the future of the U.S. after Trump because of illegal immigration. These people continue to stream into our country, overwhelming our border patrol and our ability to process and properly vet them. They are costing you, the American taxpayer, billions – and our elected officials do nothing. Some of these officials are actually obstructing attempts to solve the problem legislatively. There seems to be no way forward – legislatively or otherwise. After Trump, I see a much weaker resistance to this attack on our sovereignty. This issue will not be the country’s undoing by itself, but it will be a significant contributing factor.
Our elected officials are squandering billions and billions of taxpayers’ dollars. In my opinion, they are the best in world at wasting money and they are also the most creative people in the world at coming up with new ways to do just that. We are spending hundreds of billions on interest expense, and billions more on illegal immigrants coming into our country. Entitlement spending is now at almost two thirds of our budget and keeps increasing. Until the country gets serious about controlling spending, controlling our borders, and enforcing our laws justly and fairly, I see a very bleak future ahead for this country after Donald Trump.