Engaging with Russia and China: Is It Really in Our Best Interest? Part Two: China
Engaging With Russia and China
Is It Really in Our Best Interest?
Part Two: China
August 25, 2018
In part one of this post I stated that Russia was “main adversary number one” and that China was “main adversary number two.” Just to be clear, I was speaking in chronological terms only. The Russians have been our main adversary since the end of World War 2. China became a more serious threat in the 1990’s and during the last twenty years has made substantial improvements to their military, both qualitatively and quantitatively. They have therefore improved both their offensive and defensive capabilities. That said, China is now, by far, a much more formidable adversary, on a conventional weapons basis, than Russia. However, the Russians still maintain a vast nuclear arsenal, which is far superior to that of China.
There are several reasons why China is a more serious threat to the US and its allies than Russia. The GNP of China is just over $10T per year and dwarfs that of Russia, which is about $1.6T per year. Another reason is the size of their respective defense budgets. China spends upwards of $200B per year and Russia about $70B per year. To put this in perspective, the US is currently spending $700B in this fiscal year. If that sounds like a lot of money, it is. There are two main reasons for that large number. Reason number one is that President Trump was forced to make up for the abnormally low defense budgets of the Obama Administration. Secondly, the United States is the defender of the free world. Without the US, there would most likely be no free world. A good amount of this money is spent in defense of our allies in Europe and the Western Pacific.
It is the primary goal of China to expand its influence both regionally and globally. To do this it needs to have a military presence both regionally and globally. In order for this to become a reality, China’s economy has to be running on all cylinders. In order for the US to counter this influence, its economy must also be running on all cylinders. Right now the Chinese economy is struggling. This may slow down China’s plan to become a global player, but it won’t stop it.
China is developing economic relationships with other countries. Some of these relationships are with NATO allies such as Greece. The obvious reason for these relations is to make money and expand economic growth by growing their customer base.
China is also cultivating other types of relationships. One such relationship stands out. The Chinese government has signed a 99-year lease with the country of Djibouti, which is located on the East African coast. The purpose of leasing this property is to open a naval port and probably a military base as well. It is my guess that China will try to open other military bases located strategically around the world. This would have to be done if China seriously intends to challenge the US militarily on a global scale. They already have the world’s largest Navy. I can’t speak to the quality of their Navy, but they have more ships than any other country in the world. What they need to implement the plan are bases located strategically around the world. As of right now the US has this capacity—the Chinese do not. That, however, could change.
As I write this post, the Chinese have launched a brand new shiny aircraft carrier. Two others are under construction and three more are planned. The US and its allies should get off their diplomatic butts and try to deter other countries from leasing their property to China. First of all, why would any country want to give the military of an aggressive country like China a foothold within their borders? The easy answer, of course, is money. The United States has bases like these all over the world. Yes, we do pay rent, but in addition to that, many, if not most, of these countries want us there for protection. I don’t think the Chinese can make the same claim.
The point of economic success for China is to pursue their goal of building a military that is capable of competing both offensively and defensively with the US on a global scale. Put another way, the Chinese want to achieve superpower status and be able to challenge the US and its allies anywhere in the world. To do this the Chinese would have to negotiate lease agreements with countries who are strategically located around the world and open to having military bases from a foreign country within their borders. The Chinese would then be able to deploy their military worldwide. This strategy is not new. It is basically what the US has been doing for years. This strategy costs lots of money. This is why China also needs to be an economic superpower.
One advantage the US has over China is the large number of allies we have in both Europe and in the Western Pacific. These allies have made it possible for us to have a military presence in these areas. Our allies in these areas want our bases there. As I said earlier, the US is the protector of the free world and these bases make it possible for us to perform that role. I very much doubt if there are too many countries out there that would allow a Chinese military base in their country because they want protection from the US. So other than rent money and any other money spent by the Chinese, I see no other reason why any country would allow the Chinese to locate a military base in their country.
China has a multi-pronged approach to becoming a military superpower. As I said above, China’s first step in achieving this goal is to become an economic superpower. Military hardware and upgrades cost money. This first step is a means to that end. It is also part of China’s strategy to obtain, by any means possible, military secrets and other classified information, as well as intellectual property from private US firms, especially in the area of technology. This information, where applicable, would be used to advance their military hardware and also for any commercial applications. After all, why spend all that money on research when you can steal it for nothing. They will accomplish this through cybertheft, espionage, and any other means at their disposal.
Another method used by the Chinese to steal technology is through the use of Chinese Nationals. These people, most of whom are young, entered this country through the use of student visas. After graduation many of these bright young graduates, who had degrees in engineering or some other technical field, were hired by American companies, obtained work visas, and were allowed to stay in this country. As time went on these young Chinese Nationals advanced up the ladder and in some cases, as part of their job, gained access to proprietary corporate secrets. As it turned out, giving access to these young foreign nationals, in some cases, was like putting Dracula in charge of the blood bank. Just recently, a young Chinese National was arrested by the FBI while boarding a plane bound for China. He had in his possession highly sensitive corporate intellectual property that he was transporting to China—I just heard about this recently. There are hundreds, if not thousands of foreign nationals who are in this country working for US firms. Some of these people are given access to this type of sensitive information. We are a wide-open society and we are paying a price for that. It is my guess that this was not an isolated incident.
As I mentioned in a previous post, the Chinese have been stealing intellectual property from American businesses and the US government for years. It has become so blatant that they don’t even try to hide it any more. These thefts cost American businesses billions of dollars every year and still it goes on. There may be a solution on the horizon. Trade representatives from both the US and China have been engaging in trade talks. These talks are intended to resolve what we consider to be the unfair trade policies of the Chinese government. One of the issues that we are trying to correct is the theft of American intellectual property by the Chinese. There are certainly other issues as well, but this issue seems to be the most egregious.
In my opinion, it has become quite obvious that China’s primary focus is to become a military superpower. They have upgraded and added to their military hardware and have also amassed the world’s largest navy. Most significantly, they are beginning to open military bases around the world. I can come up with no other reason for taking these steps than to become a military superpower. The Chinese will find out as they go down this path that superpower status costs money—lots of money. It costs money to acquire new and advanced hardware. It also costs money to train people to use this hardware. And lastly, it costs a lot of money to operate, maintain and support these new assets. What better way to generate income than to trade with the US. We currently import over $500B worth of goods from China and we impose very low tariffs on those imports. On the other hand, the US ships about $135B worth of goods into China and the Chinese government imposes a much higher tariff on products. The Chinese are making a profit on products shipped into the US and also, by virtue of their high tariffs, on US products that are shipped into China.
It should be quite apparent to everyone that the Chinese have the better part of this deal. First, they are shipping a lot more product into the US than we are shipping into China. Secondly, and this is one reason why we have such a large trade imbalance: their tariffs on our exports into China are much higher than our tariffs on their exports into the US. It’s a win-win for China. They’re making money on both sides of the deal. In addition, they’re stealing our intellectual property like it’s going out of style; and they’ve been doing it for years. Why do we continue to tolerate this?
To summarize, the Chinese have been making a lot of money off of trade with the US. The US is making comparatively little off of the Chinese. When you consider that a significant portion of every dollar they make off the US is spent on their military, and that eventually we may have to confront them militarily, it makes one wonder if it is in our best interest to engage at all with the Chinese. Why would anyone want to make the military of their main adversary more powerful? I have thought about this quite a bit. The only two reasons I am able to come up with are that our negotiators were really stupid or that they were on the take.
That was harsh. So let me offer another possible explanation. Labor in China is so cheap that American companies are able to manufacture their products in China at a much lower cost than just about anywhere else. Lower cost equals higher profits. Now, being the conservative-minded person that I am, I would normally be in favor of the business community making higher profits. In this case however, I feel that company profits are being put ahead of National Security. Why would the US want to make its main adversary more powerful? The answer is corporate lobbyists “swaying” the judgment of our elected lawmakers. How’s that for a conflict of interest?
I didn’t always feel this way. Twenty years ago China was not a serious military threat. Well, times have changed. It may be time to reassess our relationship with China. It may also be time to reassess what our priorities are. Are they with corporate profits or with National Security? It’s not a one-sided decision. Some people and some businesses are going to get hurt. Let’s hope they make the right decision. Our existence may depend on it.
