It’s Trump Against The World, and He’s Winning

October 6, 2018

In the summer of 2015 Donald Trump made his decision to be a candidate for the Office of President of the United States. One could only guess what his motivations were. After all, he’s a very wealthy man. Why would anyone in his position want that kind of headache? His reasoning could have been something as innocuous as being against socialism or just not liking the direction the country was moving in. Another possible reason, and this is purely speculative on my part, is that he didn’t like being called out by President Obama at the National Correspondents Dinner in New York. I remember seeing the look on Donald Trump’s face when it happened. It was the look of someone who was saying, “I’ll show this guy.” Whether or not that incident actually played a role in his decision, we will probably never know. However, when I think back and remember his defiant stare at the President, it makes me wonder.

Soon after ringing in the New Year of 2016, the media and the country switched into political primary mode. It was Trump against sixteen other moderate and conservative Republicans. One by one they were dispatched, either by his populist message or by being held up to public disesteem. During a series of debates he outlined his vision for the country. He didn’t express this vision in the form of a political platform. Instead he chose to make a series of promises to the American people. He purposely put himself on the spot by making promises, not hollow statements. His slogan, “Make America great again,” began to catch on.  

Donald Trump made the type of promises that the American public wanted to hear. The country was told by President Obama that manufacturing jobs were not coming back. He also said that 2% economic growth was the new normal and also, that it was the best that the country could expect. The truth was that it was the best that he could deliver. Trump came along and gave the country hope instead of excuses. Bringing the economy back and creating good, high-paying jobs was one of his main promises.

Another one of the major promises made by candidate Trump was to secure the southern border. Personally, I don’t care if he builds a wall or uses high-tech surveillance and more border patrol as long as he gets it done. The goal is to make the country safe again. We need to be able to separate the good, hard-working people from the criminals that are entering our country illegally.

Candidate Trump also promised to renegotiate the multiple trade deals made by his predecessors over the last twenty-five years. These would include NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), our trade agreements with South Korea and Japan, and the trade deal with the European Union. He also spoke about trade with China who is a major trading partner. Trade with China is heavily tilted in their favor. It’s costing the US billions every year. Donald Trump described these trade deals as disastrous. He was right.

According to Donald Trump, the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) was the worst deal in the history of mankind. The US reportedly gave up $145B and lifted the economic sanctions that were crippling the Iranian economy. Our European “allies” had billions of dollars of pre-negotiated trade deals with the Iranian government. Do you think they had a conflict of interest? These deals were previously not allowed while the economic sanctions were in place. The United States didn’t negotiate: They caved. Getting the deal became more important than the terms that were actually negotiated in the deal. 

In return, Iran agreed not to enrich uranium above the level of 3.67%. They also agreed to lower the number of centrifuges from just above 20,000 to just above 5,000. In addition, Iran agreed to allow inspections of their nuclear facilities by the IAEA. They also agreed not to enrich plutonium gas into weapons grade plutonium. In addition, the Iranians agreed to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium from 10,000kg to 300kg. The balance would be shipped to Russia. There were other items included in the agreement but I think these few items will give you a good idea of what the US and its allies got in return for all that we gave up.

In addition to the inadequacies of the deal outlined above, here are a couple more. In order for the IAEA to be allowed access to Iran’s nuclear facilities they were required to give the government of Iran twenty-four days notice. Really? With constraints like that, I bet they didn’t find very many violations. The other inadequacy in the deal is that the entire agreement “sunsets” after fifteen years. It will be as if it never existed. That said, one could argue that this being the worst deal in the history of mankind is an understatement. Obviously, the president thought so.

During the campaign, Donald Trump promised that he would nominate only conservative judges to the federal courts, including the Supreme Court. He backed this promise by making public a list of conservative judges from which he would choose his nominees. He let it be known that he was in favor of judges who would interpret the constitution as written and not according to their political views.

In the general election it was Trump versus Hillary. We all remember the debates and the media bias. The coverage was positive for Hillary and not so much for Trump. What you didn’t hear much about is that one candidate was a tireless campaigner and the other was lazy. You also didn’t hear that one candidate was pleasant, friendly, and accessible to the voters, and the other was not. Mrs. Clinton was protected by her staff and appeared only in pre-planned and controlled venues. Also, in my opinion, she was condescending, arrogant and she insulted a large percentage of the American public. Do you remember the ”basket of deplorables” comment? I wonder how many deplorables voted for her?

Donald Trump, on the other hand, had a strategic plan to campaign in several key states towards the end of the campaign. These states were mostly in the Midwestern rust belt area. They were selected to push his blue-collar job creating agenda. As it turned out, he was exactly right. States like North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all went for Trump. That, as they say, was that. Donald Trump became the next president.

Another promise made by Donald Trump was to repeal Obamacare. Obamacare was already beginning to fail while Barack Obama was still in office. Insurance companies who were writing these policies began leaving the market. They just couldn’t afford the losses. Some of these companies lost upwards of one billion dollars per year. There were other issues as well. In some cases policyholders were unable to pay the high deductibles—making the insurance useless. Another issue was the individual mandate, which was very unpopular, even though it was deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court.

Since Donald Trump became president, the Democrat Party has obstructed and resisted the president’s agenda at every turn. In spite of this, the president was able to chalk up some major victories in his first year in office. Even though he did suffer a major legislative defeat when he tried to repeal Obamacare, he didn’t let that deter him from keeping other promises that he made during the campaign.

The first major victory of his presidency came in the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. In December of 2017, the Tax Reform and Jobs Bill were passed. This was President Trump’s first legislative victory and it was a big one. The effects of this tax plan were felt almost immediately. The new tax withholding tables went into effect on February 1, 2018. Economic growth during the fourth quarter of 2017 was 2.6%. In the second quarter of 2018 the economic growth jumped to 4.2%, which surpassed the expectations of the business community and the pundits of the mainstream media. Predictions for the third quarter of 2018 are at or above the level reached in the second quarter. It is obvious given how fast the economy began to grow that this legislation had a major effect on economic growth in 2018.

Another factor that helped to spur economic growth was the President’s order to review every one of the thousands upon thousands of government regulations that, according to President Trump, were also responsible for hindering economic growth. Over the past twenty months the Trump Administration has eliminated twenty regulations for every new one added. Since reducing the regulatory constraints on the country, the US has become the largest producer of energy in the world. That means more jobs and more economic growth.

International trade was another one of the major issues that Donald Trump ran on. I’m specifically talking about unfair trading agreements put in place by previous administrations. It was his contention that those in charge of negotiating trade agreements with our trading partners had done a less than stellar job. He wasn’t talking about an isolated deal with one country. He was talking about trade deals with every major trading partner with whom we trade. I say this because I don’t recall one deal that he was happy with. As a result of these poorly negotiated deals, the US has been taken to the cleaners. The President didn’t lay the blame on our trading partners. He put the responsibility squarely where it belongs. He put the blame on our negotiators, and more importantly, on the elected officials who approved these deals.

The playing fields were not level. Our trading partners had access to our markets, but the US did not have the same level of access to their markets. Here’s a fictitious example of what I’m saying. Suppose one of our trading partners ships one hundred cars into the US. They are charged a 2% tariff. If we were to export one hundred cars to the same country, we would pay a 10% tariff for the same product. This is not a level playing field. It is not free and fair trade.

In an effort to correct this unfairness, President Trump slapped tariffs on just about all of our major trading partners. This was done to get their attention and also to bring them to the negotiating table. Over the last several months our negotiators have concluded new trading agreements with South Korea, and also a three-way deal between the US, Mexico, and Canada. This deal is worth $1.2T per year in trade. The US didn’t get everything it wanted. But that’s the nature of negotiations. However, it’s a much better deal than we had.

Negotiations are currently ongoing between the US and the European Union and also with our ally Japan. The problem child is China. Rather than sit down and cut an equitable deal they are trying to match our tariffs dollar for dollar. I don’t see the logic here. China exports $510B worth of products to the US. The US exports only $135B worth of products to China. The numbers are not in their favor. Let’s hope a deal is struck soon for the sake of both countries. If it isn’t, China has more to lose than we do. By the way, I’m not holding my breath.

President Trump is also making good on his promise to nominate conservative judges to the federal courts. He began by nominating judge Neil Gorsuch to replace justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. The president also nominated judge Brett Kavanaugh to fill the seat vacated by Justice Andrew Kennedy. In addition, President Trump has nominated and had confirmed approximately one hundred conservative judges to the US Circuit Courts and The US Appeals Courts. The president still has two years left in first term so the possibility exists that he may get another Supreme Court pick. He could appoint dozens more judges to the federal court system as well.

I stated above that the President was less that happy with the Iran Nuclear Deal. In my opinion, it was what was omitted from the deal more than what was actually included in it that made it unacceptable. For example, IAEA inspectors were required to give the Iranians twenty-four days notice before being allowed access to Iran’s Nuclear facilities. Is it just me or is that just a little bit counter-productive? If the Iranians had nothing to hide, why would they insist on twenty-four days notice?

The so-called “sunset” clause was another serious flaw in this agreement. Parts of this plan expire after ten years. The rest of it “sunsets” (ends) in the year 2031, at which point it will be as if it never existed.

The areas that were omitted render the agreement almost useless by the time it sunsets. There were no restrictions included that would restrain Iran from developing medium-range missiles. These missiles would be able to reach anywhere in the Middle East and possibly Europe. These missiles would also be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Why would anyone “negotiating” a deal to restrict Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons omit something as critical as this?

Lastly, the other main issue that was omitted was Iran’s support of terrorist activities. Iran is currently supporting proxy wars in at least four different areas. These are the areas that I am aware of, but there are probably more.

There is currently a proxy war between the government of Yemen and the Houthi Rebels. Saudi Arabia, is pushing back against Iran and backing the Yemeni government. 

Another proxy war being supported by Iran is the ongoing harassment of Israel by various terrorist groups. Israel is basically surrounded by these terrorist groups on multiple sides. In southern Lebanon Hezbollah terrorists, who hide in civilian areas of Lebanese cities lob rockets into Israel.

Israel has been attacked by Iranian fighters located near the Israeli border with Syria. These Iranian fighters have repeatedly launched missiles into Israel, some of which have killed Israeli civilians. Israel is also being attacked by Hamas fighters located in the West Bank area of Israel, and in the Golan Heights. Here again, Hamas hides in civilian areas for protection.

Just in the last few days, Iran has shipped very high-tech guidance systems to Hezbollah in an effort to improve the accuracy of their missiles. This latest action by Iran would be a major escalation by the Iranians. Iran is constantly coming up with new ways to attack Israel. Their last attempt at attacking Israel came from their base in Syria. The Israelis responded with their typical zeal and efficiency and obliterated the Iranian base, killing many Iranians soldiers. It was a very one-sided confrontation.

Let me explain this in the vernacular of organized crime. Iran is going to attack Israel one time too many. When that happens, Israel will respond by breaking Iran’s legs. Iran will bluster about how they will respond and get vengeance. More than likely they will just crawl back into their hole and lick their wounds.

The above are some of the reasons why I think President Trump was not accepting of the Iran Nuclear Deal. Just from my limited knowledge, I think our side left a lot on the table. There was no reason to do this. We had crippling sanctions in place and were under no pressure to lift them. It looks to me like we caved just so we could say that we got a deal. What a waste.

During the campaign Donald Trump made a promise to get rid of ISIS. Although there are still remnants of the terror group in the Middle East, Afghanistan, and also in African, the threat posed by this terror group has been greatly reduced. Many of their fighters have been killed on the battlefield or have come to the realization that dying for the glory of Jihad wasn’t in their best interest.

For years our NATO allies have not been contributing their fair share to NATO. The alliance exists supposedly to “prevent World War III.” It also exists to protect the continent of Europe, most of which is made of up of our allies, from Russian aggression. Admittedly this was a larger problem when Russia was a part of the Soviet Union, but since the annexation of Crimea it has become apparent that an alliance like Nato is still necessary. It exists more for their benefit than for ours. This said, we should not be chasing them to pay for their own protection. They should be making their contributions as if it were an insurance premium, which is basically what it is. Going back to the organized crime analogy, it’s protection money. After years of ignoring the requests of former presidents, President Trump came along and with a little arm-twisting and shaming was able to get a commitment of $140B in contributions to NATO.

Just recently the President obtained the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson from a Turkish prison. He was being held on terrorism charges. There were no details given other than the fact that nothing was given up to obtain his release. It was the same scenario with North Korea where Americans were released as a good faith measure on the part of North Korea. President Trump has also been able to get Americans released from Venezuela and Egypt. If not for Trump these people would still be in prison. I bet I know how these people will be voting this November.

I don’t recall the President making a promise regarding North Korea. He did however say that North Korea having nuclear weapons was a non-starter. North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them was totally unacceptable and would not be tolerated. Stronger sanctions were imposed and the President stated that they would not be removed until significant and verifiable progress was made denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. This process has been ongoing between the US and North Korea with the involvement of South Korea, Japan, and China since early 2018.

One area where the President has not had a lot of success is in dealing with China. The Chinese economy is second only to that of the US. They export over $500B worth of products to the US every year. The US, on the other hand, exports only about $135B per year to the Chinese. The Chinese have almost unlimited access to US markets. Conversely, the US does not have the same level of access to Chinese markets. This is a problem for President Trump, as it should be. He wants free and fair trade with everybody, including China. If the US allows a country to have access to its markets we expect that same access in return. Anything less is protectionism. If that is not allowed, we should impose significant tariffs on the exports received into the US from those countries. These tariffs should remain in place until we are allowed the same level of access to their markets that they enjoy in our markets. Nothing short of that would be acceptable. While these trade disputes are ongoing, we should be developing new markets for our products.

Tariffs are designed to make a country’s exports more expensive to the consumers of the importing country. This should result in lower demand for those imports. Lower demand means lower imports, which in turn means lower exports for the exporting country. Lower exports means less jobs and lower GDP for the exporting country. With regards to the impasse between the US and China, it a matter of who blinks first.

Another issue with China is that they are not honest trading partners. They lie, cheat and steal and do whatever else is necessary to attain their desired goal. They steal technology from US companies based in China. They also hack into the computers of US companies based here in the US as well as US government computers. They steal trade secrets and intellectual property. They steal copyrighted assets such as CDs, DVDs, TV shows, movies, and sporting events. These thefts cost the US economy billions upon billions of dollars in lost revenue annually. This is in addition to revenue we lose by not having fair access to Chinese markets. In short, the Chinese are eating our lunch. When you deduct the money we lose between the unfair tariffs and the billions we lose in the theft of intellectual assets, it makes one wonder whether doing business with China is in our best interest. 

The Chinese are allowed to buy our debt and make money that way. In addition, they are allowed to invest in American companies and make money off the US that way. To the best of my knowledge, US citizens are not allowed ownership in Chinese companies that are based in China.

Ending our trade relationship with the Chinese would protect the US economically and militarily. I say militarily because a portion of every dollar they make or steal from the US is spent building or improving their military. The day will come when we will be forced to confront their military. We should think long and hard about whether or not we want to continue giving China the means to build up its military.

The last reason I am in favor of discontinuing our trade relationship with China is that even if we were to agree to a free and fair trade agreement, there would be no reason to think they would honor it. They could still steal intellectual property and continue to hack into the computers of US companies or the US government. Also if we were to sit down with the Chinese, they could use stall tactics and stretch out negotiations indefinitely, which would be in their favor.

When Donald Trump was running for President in 2016 he made a lot of promises to the American public. The other candidate spewed rhetoric and BS. From bringing the economy back by lowering taxes and reducing job-killing regulations to renegotiating trade deals with our trading partners, he has delivered. He opened a dialogue with North Korea and obtained the release of American citizens wrongly held in foreign prisons. He kept his promise to appoint conservative judges to federal courts. These judges will interpret the law and the constitution as written. They will not legislate from the bench.

There are two major areas where the president has failed to deliver on his promises. One is that, thus far, he has been unable to negotiate a better trade with deal with the Chinese. It takes two sides to make a deal. The Chinese are not negotiating in good faith. It’s to their advantage to keep the status quo for as long as possible. They will only come to the table when it is financially advantageous for them to do so. To me this means making their exports to the US so expensive that their market disappears. Simultaneously, we should be developing other sources and markets.

The other promise President Trump has yet to deliver on is securing the southern border. It has not been from lack of trying. In order to pass legislation, he needs help from Senate Democrats. That help has not been forthcoming. Not only have the Democrats not offered to help resolve this issue, they have done everything in their power to obstruct and resist the president’s attempts to find a solution.

That said, President Trump has had major successes during his twenty months in office. He has had many more successes and more significant successes than any of his recent predecessors. He made promises to the American people and has been able to keep the majority of them. The two he has been unable to deliver on will be foremost on his agenda after the midterms. Overall, the President has done what he promised he would do. Promises made. Promises kept. Isn’t that a novel idea for a President of the United States?