The Case for Staying the Course in Ukraine

October 25, 2022

The David vs. Goliath war in Ukraine has been raging for almost nine months. Much to the surprise of just about everyone on this planet, including Vladimir Putin, David is holding his own. Ukraine’s military is not nearly as large as Russia’s, nor is its arsenal of weapons as sophisticated or plentiful as those that are available to Russia. But somehow, with the help of the defensive arms supplied by the US, NATO, and the unexpected resistance of the Ukrainian military, little Ukraine is giving Russia as much, if not more, than it can handle.

Local residents hug a Ukrainian soldier as they celebrate the liberation of Kherson, Ukraine, on November 13. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

That said, who is actually winning this war? The answer to that question depends on the criteria used to define the word “winning.” For example, if we were to look at the number of residential buildings that have been destroyed by the Russian military in many of Ukraine’s largest cities, then Russia would be the obvious winner.

If the number of dead civilians were to be used as the determining factor in judging which side was winning, then, here again, Russia would be the victor. In addition to the Russian military being very adept at torturing and murdering civilians, they have also shown that they are also quite skilled at raping Ukrainian women and children. This, of course, occurs before they are unceremoniously shot in the back of the head. Since I have not seen any reports by the UN or any news agency of Ukrainians executing or raping Russian women, I would have to conclude that when using this metric, Russia is “winning” this war hands down.

Mass graves were recently found in the city of Izium. Cardinal Krajewski, the Pope's special envoy who was leading a mission to deliver humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, visited the grave site. It was reported that there were over 400 bodies found, including children. More bodies are expected to be uncovered.

Another way to define which side is winning is the amount of infrastructure that has been destroyed by each side. This would include water and sewer systems, roads and bridges, schools, hospitals, and municipal buildings, as well as the power grid. Much to my surprise, I have seen no news articles or other media reports of damage to Russian infrastructure caused by the Ukrainian military. Here again, it would appear that Russia is the undisputed winner of this conflict.

I’m sure that most of you who are reading this post were able to pick up on my use of satire in the above paragraphs. None of the so-called criteria used above would be legitimate standards for determining which side is actually winning this war.

There are several universally accepted standards that could be used to determine which side is actually winning this armed conflict. One of those standards is to measure the amount of territory that has been taken over by the opposing military. In the case of this conflict, Russia has control of 116,000 square km of Ukraine’s territory, including the Crimean Peninsula. As of just recently, Ukraine has managed to recover 8,000 square km of its territory – and is still advancing.

Using the number of military personnel who have been killed or wounded is another method of determining which side is winning. The numbers vary greatly depending on the source. For example, Russian military deaths have been stated to be anywhere from 57,000 to 90,000, depending on the source. The number of wounded Russian military personnel has been estimated to be roughly 225,000. Once again, the accuracy of these numbers is dependent upon the source.

The number of casualties suffered by the Ukrainian military as of the end of September are estimated to be 6,300 dead, 9,100 wounded, and 14,000 civilian casualties, as reported by UN News. Even if I were to take the low estimate of Russian casualties and compare it to the Ukrainian casualties reported above, Russia would be the big loser, and it wouldn’t even be close.

Another way to measure which side of a military conflict is winning is the number of pieces of military hardware that each side has lost and the value of that lost equipment. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has lost a significant amount of military hardware and other support equipment. This would include 2,700 tanks that were either destroyed or abandoned in the field. Depending on what model we’re talking about, the costs are as follows:

Model Estimated Cost Per Tank

T-64 $2.5M in 2011

T-80 $3.0M in 2001

T-90 $4.0M in 2016

T-14 Amata $4.0M in 2018

As I have no way of knowing how many of each type of tank was destroyed or lost, it is impossible for me to compute the value of the tanks that were destroyed or lost. But if I take the value of the least expensive model and multiply that by the 2,700 tanks lost, the amount is just under $7B.

There were also 5,500 armored fighting vehicles and 1,700 pieces of artillery that were destroyed or captured. Further, the Ukrainian military has downed 300 Russian fixed wing aircraft and 250 helicopters.

The Ukrainian military also disabled or sunk 20 Russian vessels in the Black Sea. The two most notable vessels were the Moskva, a Russian Cruiser and the Flag Ship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (before it was sunk by the Ukrainian military), and the Admiral Makarov, the new Russian Flag Ship of the Black Sea Fleet that was recently attacked by Ukraine. It was damaged but not sunk.

*RTS Moskva* following an April 13, 2022 strike from Ukrainian missiles. Russian MoD

There were also 4,000 other military vehicles and tankers that were destroyed or abandoned by the Russian military. Beyond all of the military hardware and equipment that was lost by Russia during this nine-month battle with Ukraine, there is also the value of the offensive weapons that were expended by the Russian military. These would include air-to-surface missiles, air-to-air missiles, ground-launched missiles, and all the heavy ordnance such as artillery shells.

Here again, I am at a complete loss as to how to calculate the cost to the Russian government of all the tanks, planes, vehicles, naval vessels, and all the offensive weapons that were used by Russia to try to subdue the country of Ukraine. My guess is that in today’s dollars we are looking at between $40B and $50B, and possibly more. It will take Russia years to manufacture and replenish the military assets that have been lost thus far in this war. That is a good thing. A weakened Russia is a good Russia.

When Russia first invaded Ukraine, NATO and the US, among other countries, placed economic sanctions on Russia. Even though Russia was able to stabilize its currency, its economy began to shrink. It is now estimated that Russia’s economy will contract by between 4–6% over the first year that the sanctions are in place. This contraction will happen in spite of the fact that there has been a significant increase in the price of oil, natural gas, and coal worldwide. These are Russia’s largest exports.

Another event that Russia will be forced to deal with is the fact that it has just recently defaulted on its foreign debt. Such an occurrence is an ominous sign for any sovereign entity, especially a country like Russia, which is quite wealthy in terms of natural resources.

There has been a lot of rhetoric and BS of late regarding the war in Ukraine. It is coming from both liberals and conservatives. Conservatives seem to be concerned about the money that is being spent on military aid for Ukraine. Liberals, on the other hand, especially those that are young and uninformed, have expressed their fear that this conflict will eventually lead to WW3. It is my personal belief that these young people are more concerned that they may have to leave their cushy existence here in America, put on the uniform, and defend this country. Their other concern is that Russia will deploy nuclear weapons and disrupt their carefree lifestyle here in the US.

An example of this recently took place at a town hall meeting hosted by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It was held in an auditorium at a high school in Bronx, NY. Most of those in attendance were either high school or college age students. They were young, rude, loud, and extremely ignorant.

The young people who attended this town hall berated Ms. Ocasio-Cortez for her vote in favor of sending defensive weapons to Ukraine. Whenever she tried to speak, these rude, disrespectful morons interrupted the congresswoman by accusing her of helping to start WW3. They exhibited a complete lack of understanding of what is at stake in Ukraine. They are completely unaware of Vladimir Putin’s ultimate goal, which is to retake the territory that was once part of the former Soviet Union and annex it to the Russian Federation. They seem to be totally ignorant of the consequences of not providing Ukraine with these defensive weapons and allowing that country to fall into Russian hands.

One of the demonstrators heckling Ocasio-Cortez.

It is not often that I concur with AOC on anything. In this case, however, I am in complete agreement with her decision to support Ukraine’s struggle for freedom by supplying that country with this military aid. My reasons for this are that WW3 is not going to be triggered, regardless of what happens in Ukraine. It is what could happen if Ukraine is allowed to fall that could start WW3.

Vladimir Putin has stated publicly that it is his intent to restore the territory in Eastern Europe and return “Mother Russia” to the old glory days of the former Soviet Union. That would only happen if Russia is allowed to succeed in taking over the country of Ukraine. (That in itself, however, would not cause WW3 to occur. It would only be the first step.) If Russia fails in its attempt to annex Ukraine to the Russian Federation, it would be game over for Putin’s objective.

On the other hand, if Russia is successful in its effort to annex Ukraine, it may decide to continue its western trek and try to reclaim more territory. The problem here is that all of the countries to the west of Ukraine and Russia are NATO allies. These countries would include Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, as well as the Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The other country that borders Russia on the west is Finland, which has applied for NATO membership and will most likely soon be accepted.

The problem would occur if and when Russia decided to invade one of these countries. If Russia were to be this foolhardy and invade a member of NATO, all 27 members of the NATO alliance would come to the defense of whichever NATO member was invaded. This is when the world would be drawn into WW3. If Russia failed to halt its invasion and remove its forces from our NATO ally, the result would be WW3. This could also trigger the deployment of nuclear weapons.

There are two other issues that I want to touch on before I close this post. The first is that Russia thus far has failed to bring Ukraine into submission. The fact that David has been able to not only fight off the big bad Goliath and actually go on the offensive has come as a complete surprise to everyone, including Vladimir Putin.

The defensive weapons supplied to Ukraine by the US and NATO have played a significant role in Ukraine’s defense. It is also worth mentioning that the fighting spirit of Ukraine’s military – in addition to that of the Ukrainian people who have also taken up arms against the Russians – has also played a major role in the defense of their country. This is evidenced by the fact that Ukraine’s military is advancing and recovering territory that was previously controlled by Russian forces.

Further evidence that Russia’s military is not the “big bad-ass military” that it is purported to be was discovered in a bunker that was abandoned by the Russian military. According to Reuters News Agency, thousands of pages of documents were left in this bunker completely out in the open. Also according to the Reuters journalist who was able to view these documents, the Russian military is extremely degraded and has lost the capacity to go on offense. The documents also show a military with very low morale. Further, these documents have supplied information to the Ukrainian military regarding the locations of intelligence personnel, battle plans, and the amount of military hardware that has been destroyed.

Russian posters on the walls of the abandoned base in Balakliia. One says: “We bring peace.” REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Taking into account Russia’s performance in this conflict and the report on the seized documents, what I come away with is that, if not for the fact that Russia is a nuclear power, they do not deserve the status of super power.

As I said above, I rarely if ever agree with anything that Ms. Ocasio-Cortez says. In this particular instance, however, I happen to agree with her vote to send these defensive weapons to Ukraine. These weapons have made all the difference. As a matter of fact, without the help of the US and NATO supplying these weapons, I doubt this war would still be going on.

So with all due respect to the young know-nothings who confronted AOC in that Bronx high school auditorium, the consequences of the US and NATO not sending those defensive weapons to Ukraine might very well have led to the exact situation that they were trying to avoid: WW3 and a possible nuclear holocaust.

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