The Crisis in Ukraine: Will It Become a World Crisis? The US and NATO Could Light the Fuse

March 27, 2022

It has been just over a year now since Russia first began “repositioning” its troops on its western border with Ukraine. I don’t recall this seemingly innocuous move causing any great concern to the US or its NATO allies. In December, a further “repositioning” of Russian troops took place and that did seem to at least pique the interest of NATO.

In January, the massive buildup of 150K–190K troops began in earnest. In addition to the troops came the war machines, such as tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles that would accompany a troop deployment of this magnitude.

Almost immediately, Vladimir Putin began making demands of the elected government of Ukraine. The demands actually challenged the authority of the duly elected Ukrainian government. He questioned their right to join associations such as the EU and NATO.

What right does Vladimir Putin, or anyone else for that matter, have to dictate to any country who they can or cannot associate with? Did the US invade Syria or Iran when they forged closer ties with Russia? We did not because those countries, for better or worse, are sovereign countries who have the right to choose who they want to have friendly relations with. The world order on this planet is not based on the premise that “might is right.”

The US and NATO, through no fault of their own, have been put in the middle of this crisis. The decisions we make will determine whether NATO will be viewed as a force to be reckoned with or just another paper tiger. What will NATO’s response be? Should the US and NATO become involved militarily – or just continue to supply Ukraine with “defensive weapons”? The consensus right now seems to be to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and not become involved militarily.

Should Russia prevail, and that is by no means a certainty, what will our response be if Russia invades another country? Will the US and NATO continue to be intimidated by Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons or other WMDs against NATO forces? Are these threats really all it takes to make the US and NATO stand down? When you look at the facts, that is really all Vladimir Putin had to do to stop NATO in its tracks.

It is certainly true that, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the US, NATO, and other countries as well, placed substantial economic sanctions on the Russian Federation. In addition, the UN, the World Bank, and the International Banking System also imposed sanctions on Russia, making it more difficult for Russia to conduct international trade. Since the original sanctions were put in place by the international community, two other groups of sanctions have been imposed upon Russia, thus making it even more difficult to carry on international trade.

The purpose of these sanctions is to isolate Russia economically from the world community. Over time, these sanctions will significantly degrade the Russian economy if the world community is able to hold together.

The actions that are being taken by NATO and other freedom-loving countries around the world are to supply Ukraine with trillions of dollars of “defensive weapons.” Even though these weapons are being called “defensive” in nature, they could also be characterized as offensive, especially when taking the military hardware of their enemy out from the air or with ground-based missile systems.

These weapons have had a devastating effect on the Russian invasion, and that effect has been felt almost immediately. It has, for all intents and purposes, stopped the Russian advance to the point where the Russian military is now in retreat. This being the case, the Ukrainian military is retaking ground that was formally under the control of Russian forces.

According to Newsweek, this military aid has resulted in the destruction of hundreds of pieces of Russian military hardware. This would include tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. In addition, the Ukrainian military has shot down almost 250 Russian aircraft. This number would include both fixed-wing aircraft as well as helicopters. Ukraine has been successful in sinking 2 Russian warships in the Black Sea. I would estimate the cost of all this armament and other equipment to be well in excess of one billion dollars.

In addition to the value of the naval vessels, aircraft, and other military hardware cited above, it has been reported by NATO that, as of early April, 15K Russian military personnel have been killed thus far in this conflict. It was also reported by NATO that an additional 25K Russian troops have either been wounded, captured, or surrendered to the Ukrainian military. There is also an additional number of Russian troops that are listed as MIA. If these numbers are accurate it would mean that at least 20% of the Russian fighting force deployed to Ukraine has been killed or otherwise incapacitated.

One final comment regarding the Russian troops who put down their weapons and surrendered. Many of these soldiers were young, poorly trained, raw recruits who were drafted by the Russian government. It was also reported that these young recruits were told by their superiors when they deployed that they were going on a training mission. They were not told that they were being shipped to the front lines.

Another little detail that these young soldiers were not told was that the enemy they were going up against was Ukraine. When they became aware of this, many of these young soldiers wanted no part of this fight. Russians and Ukrainians as people are closely related. They speak the same language, share a common heritage, and have many of the same customs. Many of these young conscripts wanted no part of going to war with Ukraine. In their view, it is like making war on their neighbors; it would be similar to America invading Canada. In my view, many US military personnel would be hard-pressed to make war on our closest ally, geographically speaking.

Ukraine is not a NATO ally. It is therefore a fair question to ask: why should NATO and the rest of the free world become involved or even care what happens to Ukraine? This very question has been asked by members of Congress, news personalities, and political pundits across the political spectrum. The answer, at least in my opinion, is quite obvious. If the free world allows this atrocity in Ukraine to go unchallenged, who will be next? If the US and its allies around the world fail to stand up for Ukraine, which country – or countries – will Russia invade next. Further, will China also become an aggressor nation in the Western Pacific? Will Russia eventually become emboldened enough to invade a NATO country? It is this particular fork in the road that could trigger World War III.

Thousands Protest Against Russia Across European Cities. Photo courtesy of USNews.com

As I stated previously, the Ukrainian Air Force, as of early April, has shot down almost 250 Russian aircraft. This information came courtesy of a Ukrainian pilot. Given the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force is vastly out-gunned and outnumbered, this is a remarkable achievement. The bad news is that Ukraine is losing aircraft. Their inventory of SU-27s and Mig-29s is dwindling because of their use in combat. No matter how competent your pilots are, if you go into combat you will suffer the loss of aircraft.

Poland has offered to send replacement Mig-29s to Ukraine. That offer was rejected by President Brandon. The President is concerned – or should I say afraid – that Russia may perceive this move as an escalation. Russia need only threaten the US, and this president will fold up like a cheap suit.

It is a widely held belief by foreign policy experts in government and in the media, that it is the ultimate goal of Vladimir Putin to restore “Mother Russia” to its glory days of the former Soviet Union. That being said, I would be of the opinion that, should Vladimir Putin be successful in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova would be his next targets.

The real confrontation between Russia and NATO will occur when Russia attempts to invade a NATO ally. This attempt could take place in Poland, Hungary, or any other Eastern European NATO ally. It could also happen if Russia decides to invade one or more of the Baltic countries of Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania. All of the aforementioned countries are NATO allies and, according to our illustrious fearless leader, “NATO,” which includes the US, “will not surrender one inch of NATO territory.”

NATO’s motto is, “An attack against one is an attack against all.” If NATO is to retain any semblance of credibility, it would have no choice other than to defend any NATO ally that is attacked by Russia. It is my hope that President Biden was being sincere when he made the above statement and not just talking tough for the media and our NATO allies. I would never have questioned the motives of any other President, but this one is by far, the biggest bullsh-t artist that has ever inhabited the White House. Yes, that includes Donald Trump.

In a war between Russia and NATO, with conventional weapons only, the US and NATO would obliterate Russia. The numbers show a very one-sided conflict. First of all, Russia has a population of roughly 140M people, most of whom live in the city. NATO, on the other hand, has a combined population of about 1.2B. Secondly, Russia has a GDP of 1.5T, which is roughly the same amount as that of the state of Texas. NATO’s combined GDP is in the neighborhood of $30T–$40T. Assuming that these numbers are accurate, and I believe that they are, Russia would run out of military personnel, military hardware, and money long before the NATO allies.

If Vladimir Putin were to resort to Nuclear weapons and other WMDs, we would do the same and Russia would still not be a winner. THERE WOULD BE NO WINNERS.

I very much doubt at this point that there are few people, if any, on this planet who would argue that Vladimir Putin is not a war criminal. It was he and he alone who was the unprovoked aggressor. It was he and he alone who ordered the bombing of schools, hospitals, and the residential areas of Ukraine’s major cities. These attacks caused the deaths of thousands upon thousands of innocent civilians. These cities have been destroyed to the point where they have been reduced to nothing more than piles of rubble.

Anna Semyuk hugs her children at the Beregsurany border crossing in Hungary on February 26, 2022. The children were handed off on the Ukrainian side of the border by the father—who was not allowed to cross—to Nataliya Ableyeva, a stranger to the family, who brought the children across the border and kept them safe. Photo and caption courtesy of the *Atlantic*.

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians, including elderly men and women, and men and women with young families have been killed. Many of these victims have been buried under the tons of this rubble that used to be their homes. And still it continues with no end in sight.

The good news is that Russia has paid a very significant price for its aggression. In addition to the billion dollars or more that Russia has lost in military hardware, there is also the matter of the 40K casualties that their military has suffered. These numbers are still increasing, as the conflict is ongoing. Among the dead are at least eight generals and a large number of senior officers with the rank of colonel.

These losses are evidently of great concern to Mr. Putin who has just called for an additional draft of 135K new recruits to shore up his military. It would also seem that he is unhappy with his senior military staff, as it has just recently been reported that he has fired at least 20 generals for their lack of success thus far in this conflict. It’s not your generals, Vladimir. If you send these new raw recruits into battle, they will suffer the same fate as the last group of poorly trained raw recruits that were sent into battle. They will become casualties of war.

Most people, even though they haven’t experienced the reality of war firsthand, are aware of the death, destruction, and suffering that occur during wartime. That being said, limits have been put in place by the world community as to the level of brutality that is acceptable – even in time of war. Vladimir Putin has obliterated those limits.

It was alleged by President Zelensky of Ukraine that, in the early days of April, Russian forces were removing civilians from their homes in Mariupol, tying their hands behind their backs and unceremoniously shooting them in the back of the head. Some of these civilians were women, who in addition to being executed were raped. As if all this wasn’t bad enough, it was also reported that some of these civilians were beheaded.

These sickening acts of inhumanity are way beyond what is acceptable to the world community in wartime, in a civilized world. These accusations, if found to be true, should be classified as war crimes and those responsible should be put on trial and held to account.

In an effort to be unbiased and upfront, I will say I have been unable to find a second source that was able to confirm the above allegations. However, if these events are shown to have happened, it would be imperative that the world community stand together and isolate Russia economically and politically from the rest of the world until those responsible for these acts, including Vladimir Putin, are brought to justice.

Russia employs what are known as “scorched earth” tactics during wartime. Cities are leveled, civilians are slaughtered, and nothing that can be used to aid their enemy is spared. There is absolutely no regard for human life. It matters not one iota if these civilians are men, women, children, or even infants. They are eliminated. They are left to rot where they fell or are buried in mass graves. These are the tactics of terrorists – not of a civilized society. These same atrocities have also been reported to have occurred in the city of Bucha.

Also, as of the first week of April, there were reportedly 5,600 open cases of alleged war crimes committed by the Russian military. These reports are currently being investigated. Should these accusations of war crimes prove to be true, what should be the response of the world community? My answer to that, as I stated above, would be to completely isolate Russia economically. This means that no country would purchase any Russian exports; it would also mean that no country would export their products to Russia. Basically, the world would starve Russia out. It would be my hope that eventually Russia would get the hint and turn over those allegedly responsible for these war crimes and bring them to justice.

I would also exclude Russian banks and other businesses from using the international banking system known as SWIFT, which would almost completely isolate Russia from the world’s banking system and make it much more difficult to transfer money around the world.

It would be my hope at this point that the Russian people, even those who are close to Putin, including the so-called oligarchs, would begin to turn against him. This may prove to be a bridge too far because, as long as he is in Russia, he is almost untouchable.

There is also the matter of holding the government of Russia financially accountable for all the physical damage to the cities of Ukraine. The amount necessary to rebuild the infrastructure, power plants, schools, hospitals, and all the residential and commercial buildings that were destroyed by the Russian military will be in the tens of billions of dollars, if not more. It is Russia and only Russia who is responsible, and it is Russia and only Russia who should foot the bill.

The possibility still exists that Russia could prevail in Ukraine. Should this occur, what will happen next? If Russia decides to invade another country, will the US and NATO become involved militarily? Will they allow Vladimir Putin to intimidate them again, or will they grow a pair and take a stand? What happens next remains to be seen. But make no mistake, it is the US and NATO who hold the match that could ignite this powder keg.

I see two possibilities as to how this confrontation with Russia will play out. Number one is that Russia will invade a non-NATO country in which case it will play out in much the same manner as what is currently happening in Ukraine, meaning that NATO will not get involved militarily.

The second possibility, which I would consider to be foolhardy on the part of Russia, is that Russia would attempt to invade a NATO ally. This would trigger a direct military response by NATO against Russia. At this point, NATO would have no choice. It would either defend the NATO ally, or it would turn tail and run. If this were to occur, NATO would cease to be a viable threat to Russia or anybody else on this planet.

If the US and NATO were to engage with Russia militarily, the “powder keg'' would be lit and World War III would ensue – that is, unless Russia decides not to engage with NATO forces. If this were to happen, Russia would lose all credibility. I wouldn’t bet the farm on that happening.

The other possibility, the one that everyone wants to avoid, is that Russia would respond with nuclear weapons and other WMDs. If that were to happen, NATO would respond in kind and the world as we know it would change forever.

China would most likely emerge unscathed and chaos would prevail worldwide. Will this be the new world order? I think we will find out in the not-too-distant future. Will mankind destroy itself or will cooler heads prevail? I wonder what life on this planet would be like with China as the world’s only remaining superpower?